The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913–2001
نویسندگان
چکیده
The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913–2001 This paper tests for the long-term and short-term relationships between fertility and relative cohort size for the United States using the annual time series data between 1913 and 2001. An error correction model, imbedded with the cointegration theory, is coupled with the general impulse response function. Empirical evidence on relationships is found lending support to the Easterlin hypothesis in that the change in relative cohort size is an important explanatory variable to include in studies of human fertility both in the short run and in the long-run for the United States. In addition, our results support the catching-up hypothesis and that the child tax deduction has been an important policy variable influencing births. JEL Classification: J13, D13
منابع مشابه
Special Article Wilhelm Weinberg’s 1913 Large Retrospective Cohort Study: A Rediscovery
Wilhelm Weinberg, German physician, founder, and president of the Stuttgart Society for Racial Hygiene, published in 1913 the results of a large, retrospective cohort study entitled Die Kinder der Tuberkuloesen (Children of the Tuberculous). The exposed cohort comprised 18,212 children whose 3,246 fathers and 2,022 mothers died of tuberculosis between 1873 and 1902. The unexposed cohort compris...
متن کاملWilhelm Weinberg's 1913 Large Retrospective Cohort Study: a rediscovery.
Wilhelm Weinberg, German physician, founder, and president of the Stuttgart Society for Racial Hygiene, published in 1913 the results of a large, retrospective cohort study entitled Die Kinder der Tuberkuloesen (Children of the Tuberculous). The exposed cohort comprised 18,212 children whose 3,246 fathers and 2,022 mothers died of tuberculosis between 1873 and 1902. The unexposed cohort compris...
متن کاملCompleting incomplete cohort fertility schedules
This paper develops a simple age-period-cohort framework in completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules, and makes full use of 1917–2005 U.S. data to obtain robust outcomes. Empirically, we indicate that the period effect is the key to transforming a fertility level into a fertility schedule. Accompanied by the smoothed version of tempo-variance-adjusted total fertility rates proposed in K...
متن کاملRelative Wage Changes and Timing of Fertility
The U.S. wage structure experienced substantial changes due to energy price shocks, increased international competition, and technological change. Katz and Murphy (1992) among others have argued that these changes reflected a rise in demand for more skilled workers and also females. In this paper I use these types of relative wage changes to identify the effects of women’s wages and husbands’ e...
متن کاملCohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for U.S. women.
Historical trends in U.S. nonmarital fertility have been compiled almost exclusively from vital statistics on births. This paper complements this historical record by providing cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for cohorts of U.S. women spanning approximately 50 years of cohort experience. Life table estimates using retrospective marital and fertility histories in the June 1980, 1985, 19...
متن کامل